Webinar on Mapping and Modelling in EPPO Pest Risk Analysis

Online, 2026-01-13

The EPPO Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) use maps and models to visualise and predict the distribution of pests and their hosts under current and/or future climatic conditions, for example, in support of the assessment of establishment potential. The extent to which mapping and modelling are used depends on the pest, availability of data and experts that collaborate with the EPPO Secretariat. While EPPO’s PRA framework primarily relies on qualitative and semi-quantitative methods, mapping and modelling can provide valuable support to inform conclusions. Currently, the use of mapping and modelling in EPPO PRAs relies on contributions from a limited number of experts.

To address this, a webinar was organised to provide a platform for experts to share their experience in mapping and modelling tools and data sources, with the objective to enlarge the pool of expertise contributing to EPPO PRA maps and models and strengthening their scientific robustness.

A total of 10 experts and 4 observers from 14 EPPO countries, as well as representatives of the EPPO Secretariat. Experts in mapping and modelling were drawn from those already contributing to EPPO PRAs and nominations proposed by NPPOs. Observers were selected to encourage links with the Panel on Phytosanitary Measures, Panel on Invasive Alien Plants and PRA core-members.

Screenshot from the Webinar

The webinar consisted of four sessions. The first one, covered how the EPPO PRA practices have evolved for mapping and modelling over the years, and the type of data used including pest and host distribution, climatic data, soil parameters, agricultural and additional factors. The experts noted that the increasing availability of data resources should improve mapping, and that the more systematic use of maps in EPPO PRAs, especially to support the assessment of establishment potential, has been positively received. However, the need for mapping and modelling should be identified in the early stages of PRA preparation. In addition, it was also noted that maps may not fully capture underlying uncertainties and may be subject to overinterpretation.

The second session covered the different tools available to analyse and visualise spatial data to map and model the distribution, and establishment potential of invasive alien plants and plant pests and hosts, using Geographic Information Systems tools (e.g. QGIS, ArcGIS) and species distribution models (e.g. CLIMEX, MaxEnt and R-packages such as BIOMOD2 or MoPSI), along with discussions on static and interactive maps. Several initiatives to develop custom web applications allowing non-GIS users to produce maps were presented, as well as the Spatially Explicit Environmental Data (SEED) platform and the DynaMap tool under development by ESFA and EPPO, respectively. Numerous data sources and the challenges related to method selection, dataset selection and data filtering (particularly for pest occurrence records) were discussed and highlighted in many presentations by the experts.

The third session covered the technical and computational challenges of combining data into a single map.

The forth session covered the process, timing and role of mappers and modellers in EPPO PRAs, followed by an interactive discussion and brainstorming session.

Experts were invited to express their interest in contributing in the future, either as mappers or modellers in PRA Expert Working Groups and/or as members of a group of experts to discuss mapping and modelling methodological aspects. The group of experts would meet first to discuss climate change scenarios. The experts also suggested that the group could develop a guidance on quality checking of pest distribution data and compiling sources, as well as a decision-support scheme to help determine when mapping and modelling are feasible and needed for an EPPO PRA. The recently developed EPPO DynaMap tool could be used internally for assembling distribution data during PRA preparation. In addition, the EPPO Secretariat will produce a short guidance document outlining the process, timing, and roles of mapping and modelling experts in EPPO PRAs.